Latest State Revenue Forecast Presents No Significant Surprises

General Fund and Lottery resources up less than one percent from 2015 close-of-session estimate.

Contributed by: Gil Riddell | AOC Policy Director

As scheduled, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis gave its September 2016 Economic and Revenue Forecast to a joint meeting of the legislative revenue committees on Wednesday, September 14th.

Some high points:

  • Oregon’s job and personal income growth are increasing faster than the U.S. average, which is slowing.
  • The probability of the U.S. entering a recession next year is low; about 20 percent.
  • General fund gross revenue is up $24.2 million (0.1 percent) from the 2015 close-of-session estimate, but down $2.2 million from the June 2016 forecast.
  • Lottery resources continue to grow beyond expectations. They are up $8.3 million (0.7 percent) from the June 2016 forecast. You will recall that AOC pressed the 2016 Legislature to adjust the allocation to counties for the current biennium of video lottery proceeds for badly needed economic develop projects based on the current revenue forecast for 2015-17 rather than a fixed dollar amount based on the May 2015 revenue forecast. Total lottery resources under this current forecast are estimated to grow $112.4 million over the close-of-session forecast. Based on the close-of-session forecast, the 2.5 percent share for county economic development (minus one-half of funding of administration of Regional Solutions) equals $40,836,748. Adjusted to the current forecast, the county share would be plus $1,764,544.
  • No personal or corporate kicker is implied by the current forecast.
2016-12-21T20:10:58+00:00 September 21st, 2016|Categories: AOC Advocacy|Tags: , |