ODOT economists released the April State Highway Fund forecast on Friday, which includes preliminary estimates on the impacts of social distancing and reduced travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is ODOT's first estimate using the limited data available, and they plan to release an updated forecast in July after more data is collected.
The attached updated FY 2020 and FY 2021 County Road Revenue Forecasts have been revised to include the estimated COVID-19 revenue impacts on each county's SHF apportionment and are highlighted in red.
Overall, preliminary estimates show a decrease to FY 2020 apportionments of $9.8 million that will result in an estimated 6% decrease to May payments and a 20% decrease to June's. The 20% total decrease in the June apportionment represents the April collection, the likely height of COVID restrictions. The 20% decrease is across all sources (motor fuels, weight-mile, DMV), which motor fuels at a 40% decrease are the largest contributor to that decline. Weight-mile is about 10% and DMV less.
Preliminary estimates for FY 2021 show a decrease of $22.5 million for the fiscal year but could change significantly depending upon the length of the Governor's executive order 20-12 and social distancing directives.
The third attached sheet summarizes the estimated gross highway revenue by month for FY 2020 and FY 2021 for both the October 2019 and April 2020 forecasts, showing the percent decrease to the State Highway Fund overall.
***WARNING: This ODOT forecast comes with an unprecedented level of uncertainty. The magnitude and duration of the economic impact stemming from policies to combat the spread of the virus are unknown. AOC is continuing to evaluate theses estimates and will work with ODOT over the coming months, as data becomes available and more is known about the duration of the virus, to improve impact estimates to your county revenue.***
Please Note: For the month of April 2020, ODOT travel data is currently suggesting a 20% decrease in total SHF allocations. Since this is likely the most severe impacts on a month to month basis, projecting a 20% decrease for the full FY 2021 decline should be considered by your county as the most conservative budget estimates based on current data.
In addition, a letter was sent on behalf of Co-Chairs Henry Heimuller, AOC Transportation and Community Development Committee, Don Russell, AOC Transportation and Community Development Committee and President-elect Mike Bezner, Oregon Association of County Engineers and Surveyors that outlines Oregon county priorities in a fourth COVID-19 relief and economic stimulus package that includes infrastructure funding and Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Reauthorization.