The governor’s executive order “Stay Home, Save Lives” marked the beginning of statewide social distancing measures in response to COVID-19 that resulted in drastic reductions to travel volumes. Volumes reached a low of 61 percent below traditional weekend traffic and 43 percent below weekday travel shortly after the order was issued. After the initial reductions, traffic volumes slowly climbed, reaching within 10 percent of typical volumes by the end of August, but fell well below traditional volumes in September corresponding with the Labor Day holiday, see graph here which is a visual representation of the Weekly COVID-19 Traffic Reports created by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT).  

Reduced traffic volumes substantially impact county State Highway Fund Apportionments that comprise about 55 percent of county dedicated funding on average. Estimates show an $8.3 million loss for counties in Fiscal Year (FY) 2020, and a projected loss of $25.3 million in FY 2021. 

ODOT released two forecasts, the first in April and then July, in an effort to capture the changing traffic conditions and Driver and Motor Vehicle Services (DMV) capacity relating to COVID-19. The next forecast is expected in October. 

The most recent total estimates $250 million in projected reductions to the State Highway Fund between fiscal years 2020 and 2024, the county share equaling about $56.1 million. The estimated reduction in revenues is a product of both reduced traffic volumes (see the graph here) and limited DMV capacity resulting from office closures and social distancing measures. See below for a breakdown of the anticipated reduction in county apportionments into FY 2024.

FY 2020: County total of 303.2 million – a reduction of $8.3 million

FY 2021: County total of 321.3 million – a reduction of $25.3 million

FY 2022: County total of 336.8 million – a reduction of $11.6 million

FY 2023: County total of 347.8 million – a  reduction of $6.9 million

FY 2024: County total of 354.8 million – a reduction of $4 million

While July apportionments were close to the estimates released in the July Forecast, August and September payments came in well below anticipated (20 percent and 22 percent respectively). Overall, counties have already lost an estimated $22.7 million due to COVID-19, which equates to a  35.5 percent reduction in July, 26.6 percent in August, and 19.6 percent in September. 

Because of the larger than anticipated reductions experienced in August and September, ODOT is working to release another forecast in October that better reflects changing traffic volumes and the impacts of both COVID-19 and wildfires on DMV service capacity and building closures. The Association of Oregon Counties will release a monthly forecast for county apportionments shortly after. 

Contributed by: Jocelyn Blake | County Road Program, Policy Analyst