The Oregon Department of Transportation recently released the October 2020 State Highway Fund (STF) forecast that includes the most up to date information related to how COVID-19 is impacting the transportation sector. AOC staff released updated versions of the Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 – 2021 County Road Revenue Forecast and the FY 2020 – 2021 COVID Monthly Revenue Estimates that incorporates data published in the updated STF forecast. 

The October forecast estimates a total county allocation of $304.6 million for FY 2021, a $16.6 million reduction from the July forecast, and a $41.8 million reduction compared to pre-COVID-19 estimates. An outline of the projected changes in county apportionments into fiscal year 2024 is below: 

The October forecast includes additional information related to the Department of  Driver and Motor Vehicle Services’ (DMV) capacity to meet demand under a hybrid in-person and online service model, which overestimated in the July forecast, resulted in much lower county apportionments than originally projected for July through September. The new forecast also includes a few new assumptions that mirror those from the Department of Administrative Services’ Oregon Economic and Revenue forecast, the important changes are as follows: 

  • A vaccine or equivalent treatment will be available and have permeated into the population enough that during the summer and fall of 2021 an economic recovery will accelerate.  
  • Traffic volumes will remain at around 90 percent into the summer of 2021 and increase to about 93 percent in the fall where it remains into 2023. 
  • DMV transactions will slowly increase over the next few months with the agency starting to address the backlog starting the beginning of next year. 
  • COVID-19 is no longer expected to negatively impact weight-mile tax revenues. Removing this negative effect now yields an expected slight increase in revenues in 2021 over 2020.  

The accuracy of the forecast is highly dependent on statewide COVID-19 restrictions. The updated forecast was released before Oregon hit a new record high in daily cases, topping 900, in early November, and the governor ordered a two-week pause on social gatherings in Multnomah, Malheur, Umatilla, Marion, and Jackson counties. The stricter restrictions may impact the monthly apportionments as people limit their social interactions. 

AOC staff will continue to monitor county apportionments and update the county revenue forecasts as needed. For more information contact Jocelyn Blake (Jblake@oregoncounties.org).

Contributed by: Jocelyn Blake | Policy Analyst, County Road Program