Oregon has roughly one billion dollars to invest. That’s the topline message following the quarterly revenue forecast from the Office of Economic Analysis released May 19. 

Some revenue highlights from the forecast include:

  • Projected 2019-21 net General Fund resources are up $1,065.5 million (4.4 percent) from the March forecast. 
  • Projected 2019-21 lottery resources are up $21.8 million (1.7 percent) from the March forecast.  
  • Projected combined net General Fund and Lottery Fund resources are up $1,087.3 million (4.2 percent) from the March forecast.

The unexpected surge in revenue will undoubtedly trigger Oregon’s unique kicker law. Enshrined in the Oregon State Constitution by Ballot Measure 86 in 2000, the kicker is a tax rebate for both individual and corporate taxpayers triggered when actual revenues exceed forecasted revenues by two percent or more over the state’s biennial budget cycle. Ballot Measure 85 in 2012 redirected the corporate kicker to the state’s General Fund for K-12 school funding while the individual kicker is returned to taxpayers as a rebate on tax returns.

While the kicker will kick, there is still some uncertainty as to the final amount. Normally, tax filing day falls in mid-April and Oregon’s state economist has about a month to tabulate revenues before the annual May forecast. Due to the filing deadline extension this year, only about half of the tax returns had been processed at the time of the forecast. However, if current projections hold, the total kicker given out as a rebate on 2021 tax returns will total about $1.4 billion.

Outside of the kicker, legislators will need to decide how to invest May’s windfall, and do so quickly. With a constitutional close of the 2021 Legislative Session set for June 27, budget planning is underway little time for input and discussion. Legislator newsletters suggest broad agreement exists on the need to provide wildfire relief, COVID-19 relief, and broadband infrastructure support. Additional buzzy topics include child care, extra small business support, affordable housing development, and tackling mega infrastructure projects.

AOC will continue to advocate for county budget priorities and encourages all commissioners, judges, and chairs to contact their legislators to coordinate spending plans.

Contributed by: Tyler Janzen | Legislative Affairs Manager